Strait of Hormuz in the Spotlight, Oil Struggles to Fall
Global oil prices have held steady for two consecutive days as the market has re-introduced a risk premium due to Middle East tensions centered on Iran. Brent prices have remained in the $68–$69 per barrel range, while WTI is around $64.
The main trigger: the US has issued an advisory for American-flagged vessels to stay as far away from Iranian waters as possible when passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This signals that the risk of shipping disruptions is being taken seriously, even though US-Iran diplomacy remains ongoing.
The Strait of Hormuz is the "lifeline" for energy shipments from the Middle East to global markets (especially Asia). Iran has repeatedly threatened to close this route when tensions rise—although so far it has not acted. Therefore, even the slightest threat can immediately push up prices.
On the other hand, there is some mixed news: US-Iran nuclear talks mediated by Oman are said to have a "positive tone" and are likely to continue. However, the market remains cautious because the worst-case scenario is that the conflict escalates and disrupts oil flows. The impact is already visible at sea: some supertanker operators are reportedly speeding up their passage through Hormuz to reduce exposure to risk. If this pattern spreads, logistics and insurance costs could rise—and that often carries over to oil prices.
Amid the often-talked-about "oversupply" narrative, the Brent market structure still shows backwardation (prices near the end of the contract are higher than the next), a sign of tight near-term supply. This week, traders are also awaiting a series of US energy data to gauge stockpiles and actual market conditions. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
