Oil Prices Slightly Correct, Market Weighs Iran Risk Premium and Threat of Supply Disruptions
Oil prices weakened slightly in trading today, Tuesday (February 10th), after rising more than 1% in the previous session. Brent fell around 0.26% to $68.85/barrel, while WTI weakened around 0.33% to $64.15/barrel.
This weakening is not due to a "calm" market; rather, market participants are weighing two major trends: on the one hand, supply risks from US-Iran tensions, and on the other, hopes that Oman-mediated nuclear talks can contain escalation. As a result, oil prices have tended to move sideways with a corrective bias: rising yesterday due to risky headlines, then today, some markets are opting to "take profits" while awaiting further news.
The primary source of the "risk premium" remains strategic shipping lanes. The United States has just issued updated guidance for US-flagged commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz: they are advised to stay as far away from Iranian territorial waters as possible and to verbally refuse boarding requests (but not to resist if boarding occurs to prevent escalation). The Strait of Hormuz itself is a vital chokepoint, as approximately 20% of global oil transit passes through it.
At the same time, economic pressure on Iran has also resurfaced. Reuters reports that US President Donald Trump is escalating pressure with trade-related tariffs on Iran, while Tehran continues to assert its bargaining position on the nuclear issue and broader issues. This makes it difficult for the market to judge whether tensions are escalating (boosting oil), or whether negotiations are mitigating risks (restraining).
Another supply factor that is shaking expectations is the flow of Russian oil. The European Union has proposed a new package of sanctions that, for the first time, targets ports in third countries that handle Russian oil—including Kulevi (Georgia) and Karimun (Indonesia). If this measure disrupts logistics or shipping-related services, the market could re-establish a risk premium, although the impact will depend on implementation and the response of supply chain actors.
On the demand side, there are signs of a shift in purchasing power: India's IOC reportedly purchased around 6 million barrels from West Africa and the Middle East, as it seeks to reduce its dependence on Russian oil in the context of its trade relations with the US. This doesn't directly "drive up" prices today, but it adds to the narrative that the global supply map is shifting.
The market is also beginning to position itself ahead of weekly US inventory data. The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report is scheduled for release on Wednesday, February 11, 2026, at 10:30 a.m. ET (approximately 10:30 p.m. WIB). Stock figures (crude, gasoline, and distillate) often trigger intraday volatility, so it's understandable that oil is tending to be cautious today.
Technical Outlook: Ranges remain dominant, but key levels are becoming clearer
Technically, WTI is still seen consolidating in the middle of its range, with resistance around $66 and support around $62, which are often used by market participants as a reference for "buy on dips vs. sell on rallies."
However, several analyses also highlight a structural improvement: WTI is said to have broken through its long-term downtrend line and is holding above its key moving average area, so the short-term bias could tilt bullish if key resistance levels are breached.
For Brent, many market participants still treat $70 as a "big fence" (psychological/technical resistance), while the $65–$66 area is often viewed as a buffer zone in case of a pullback.
Source: Newsmaker.id
