Oil Prices Rise, But Recession Fears, Tariffs Cap Gains
Oil prices rose 1% on Tuesday, helped by a weaker U.S. dollar, although gains were capped by growing concerns about a U.S. slowdown and the impact of trade tariffs on global economic growth.
Brent crude futures were up 73 cents, or 1.05%, at $70.01 a barrel by 1116 GMT after falling in early trade. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 66 cents, or 1%, at $66.69 a barrel after also falling earlier.
Both benchmarks closed 1.5% lower in the previous session.
The dollar index hit a four-month low, making oil cheaper for overseas buyers.
Investors are closely watching OPEC+ plans after the producer group announced plans to increase output in April.
The US tariff cuts would ease concerns about inflation and economic contraction, said PVM analyst Tamas Varga, but the recent drop in oil prices means “it’s hard to see OPEC+ going ahead with its plan and releasing oil back into the market from April.”
On Friday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters that the OPEC+ producer group would go ahead with tariff increases in April but could then consider other measures, including cutting output.
Brent has found strong technical support around $70 a barrel and could rebound, said Suvro Sarkar, head of the energy sector team at DBS Bank, adding that OPEC+’s supply response would be flexible, depending on market conditions.
“If oil prices fall below $70 a barrel for a prolonged period, we think production increases will probably be halted. OPEC+ will also be watching Trump’s policies on Iran and Venezuela,” he said. US President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies have roiled global markets, imposing and postponing tariffs on major oil suppliers Canada and Mexico, while also raising tariffs on China, prompting retaliatory action.
Over the weekend, Trump said a “transition period” was likely and refused to rule out a U.S. recession.
Stocks, which often follow crude oil prices, plunged on Monday, with all three major U.S. indexes falling sharply. The S&P 500 suffered its biggest one-day drop since Dec. 18 and the Nasdaq dropped 4.0%, its biggest one-day percentage drop since September 2022.
Investors are looking ahead to U.S. inflation data due on Wednesday for clues on the direction of interest rates.
In the U.S., crude inventories are expected to have risen last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories likely fell, according to a preliminary Reuters poll on Monday.
The poll was conducted ahead of reports from the American Petroleum Institute at 4:30 p.m. EDT on Tuesday and the Energy Information Administration at 10:30 p.m. EDT on Wednesday.
Source: Investing.com
