Gold Steady, Heading for Fourth Weekly Gain
Gold prices held steady around US$4,800 per ounce on Friday (April 17th) and were on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. Sentiment was supported by growing hopes for a permanent ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, which helped ease inflation concerns and ease expectations of central bank interest rate hikes.
US President Donald Trump said Tehran had agreed to a number of conditions, including abandoning its nuclear weapons ambitions, providing "free oil," and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, these claims have not been verified by Iran, while Hormuz remains effectively closed under a double blockade.
On the energy supply side, uncertainty about production recovery remains a key variable. IMF Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that restoring a significant portion of disrupted oil and gas output could take up to two years, although the market is currently more focused on opportunities for de-escalation.
While Hormuz remains a risk hotspot, oil prices have fallen sharply amid optimism over the Iran deal, easing energy inflation pressures. This situation has also curbed expectations of tighter monetary policy, which is generally a drag on gold because it offers no yield.
In terms of performance, gold is expected to rise around 1% this week and remains around 17% above its March low. Amid the tug-of-war between geopolitical risks and the direction of interest rates, the market will continue to monitor developments in US-Iran negotiations, the operational status of the Strait of Hormuz, and real yield movements to determine the next direction for gold's strengthening. (asd)*
Source: Newsmaker.id
