Oil Rises, US–Iran Negotiations Stall — Hormuz Risk Looms
Oil prices rose on Friday (February 27) after US–Iran nuclear talks ended without a clear agreement, fueling concerns that a “military” route remains possible and could disrupt supplies from the Middle East. At 7:50 a.m. ET (12:50 GMT), April Brent crude rose 2.4% to $72.54/barrel, while WTI rose 2.6% to $66.89/barrel.
Despite the lack of a “deal,” both sides signaled that negotiations would continue. Omani mediators said technical talks are scheduled for next week in Vienna, but the lack of a breakthrough has kept the market pricing in a risk premium. ING believes the market has already priced in a substantial risk premium due to the uncertainty and potential escalation—it could even reach around $10/barrel.
At the same time, the market is also monitoring supply factors from Latin America. US officials said oil sales under the US-Venezuela supply deal are projected to reach around $2 billion by the end of February, potentially increasing global supply in the coming weeks and months—a factor that could act as a brake if the market begins to focus on the risk of a glut in 2026.
The next focus: further developments between the US and Iran (particularly risks in the Strait of Hormuz) and the OPEC+ meeting on supply policy. While there is uncertainty, oil prices tend to be highly reactive to headlines—easily rallying when tensions rise, but also vulnerable to corrections if diplomacy is again perceived as progressive.
Source: Newsmaker.id
