Oil Falls, "War Premium" Begins to Fade
Oil prices weakened as Middle East tensions eased, leading the market to assess the risk of imminent supply disruptions as lower. Brent traded around $67 per barrel and WTI around $63, continuing pressure after Brent's nearly 4% decline last week.
The main trigger came from diplomacy: the US and Iran held talks in Oman on Friday, with Iran calling them a "step forward." Donald Trump also signaled a follow-up meeting this week—amidst the US military buildup in the region and an upcoming meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Nevertheless, the direction of oil this year remains a tug-of-war. Since early 2026, prices have been pushed higher despite market concerns about oversupply, driven by geopolitical factors and disruptions to supply at various points. However, as soon as there were signs of progress between the US and Iran, traders quickly reduced their bets on a near-term conflict—and this was immediately reflected in the price.
Another focus is India. Trump claimed India agreed to halt Russian oil imports as part of a trade deal, but New Delhi has not confirmed this and continues to emphasize "energy security." If India does indeed curb purchases, the market will be watching to see whether Russian oil discounts widen to find new buyers—if not, global supply could feel even tighter.
This week, the market will also be bombarded with updated projections from OPEC, the IEA, and official US agencies regarding the global oil balance—this could determine whether the correction continues or stabilizes. Beyond that, Cuba is also in the spotlight after US pressure disrupted fuel deliveries, leading the local government to warn airlines about limited refueling at Havana's main airport. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
