US Hurricane & Iran Risk: Combination Triggers Sharp Oil Rise
Oil prices rallied again on Tuesday (January 27th), driven by a combination of geopolitical risk premiums and a weakening US dollar, which made the commodity feel "cheaper" to global buyers. Market sentiment was further fueled after US President Donald Trump reiterated his emphasis on increasing the US military presence around Iran—encouraging traders to adopt a higher-risk scenario.
Domestically, a winter storm disrupted some energy operations, including refinery operations on the Gulf Coast. The impact is expected to be more of a short-term logistical and processing disruption, rather than a permanent shift in demand—but it is still enough to keep prices from falling.
However, the market is also seeing a "brake" on the supply side. Kazakhstan is starting to normalize exports after key facilities resumed, and major producers are preparing to increase production again. This means that concerns about tight supplies could begin to ease—limiting the scope for an oil surge if there is no further escalation.
Meanwhile, the Venezuelan issue is also a concern due to efforts to increase crude flows to the market. If additional supply does come in, this could add to the "supply remains loose" sentiment that has been the dominant consensus for 2026.
Next focus: OPEC+. The market is awaiting signals on whether the group will maintain its hold on production increases next month. So far, expectations point to stable production, making prices more sensitive to geopolitical headlines than major supply policy changes.
Latest prices (March contract):
WTI: around $62.20/barrel
Brent: around $65.21/barrel
Source: Newsmaker.id
