Rick Rieder Emerges in Trump-Era “New Fed Chair” Scenario
Rick Rieder, chief investment officer at BlackRock, has suddenly become the hottest name in the market for the next Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair. According to Kalshi, Rieder's odds are around half the market, surpassing other, more frequently mentioned candidates.
Behind him, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh remains close behind, while names like Christopher Waller and Kevin Hassett are in the next tier. This opportunity dynamic has shifted rapidly in recent days—indicating the market is increasingly sensitive to political signals from Washington.
The context is sensitive: Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends in May, and speculation about his replacement is growing just as markets await the FOMC decision. At the same time, political pressure on the Fed has again become a major fuel for volatility.
Some analysts believe Rieder is considered “in tune” with a more dovish policy preference, particularly regarding the direction of interest rates. This narrative has led some market participants to begin developing scenarios: if the new chairman is more dovish, expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts could return—and this is usually quickly reflected in the dollar, bonds, and risk assets.
However, the bigger issue isn't just who the new chairman is—it's how independent the Fed can remain. A series of political maneuvers and tensions have led the market to view the Fed Chair position as a "high-risk" position, as monetary decisions could be affected by perceptions of intervention.
The bottom line: the market is reading Powell's succession as a factor that could change the 2026 landscape—even before the official name is released. Until a formal announcement is made, the movement of odds in the forecast market will continue to be a compass for speculation (and a source of volatility) leading up to and following the Fed's decision.
Source: Newsmaker.id
