Oil Prices “Pulled in Two Directions”: Kazakhstan Recovers, Iran & Storms Alarm
Oil prices weakened on Monday (January 26th) as the market began to see supply from Kazakhstan (OPEC+) improve—overriding concerns that a winter storm in the US would disrupt production.
March contract prices updated:
WTI fell 0.61% to $60.68/barrel.
Brent fell 0.35% to $64.82/barrel.
Supply sentiment improved after disruptions to Kazakhstan's exports eased. Reuters reported that production at the giant Tengiz field was gradually restarting after a shutdown, and output would be increased slowly.
Furthermore, Reuters also reported that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline had returned to full capacity after maintenance—helping to ease “fears of a supply shortage.”
In the US, the winter storm remains a closely watched factor. Its impact is real—Reuters estimates that the storm temporarily cut about 250,000 bpd of production, including from Oklahoma and Texas. But the market still views this disruption as likely temporary, so the upward push for prices is limited.
Another layer of risk comes from the Middle East. The deployment of US naval assets to the region and US-Iran tensions are keeping the geopolitical risk premium in place, although not strong enough to overpower the "supply is starting to loosen" narrative.
From the OPEC+ perspective, the market is also reading "hold on" signals. Reuters sources say OPEC+ is likely to extend its pause on production increases until at least March, with key decisions to be discussed at the February 1 meeting.
The bottom line: oil is being pulled in two directions—Kazakhstan recovering = bearish, while the US + Iran storm = bullish. For now, the improving supply narrative is winning, which is why prices are only slightly down, not collapsing.
Source: Newsmaker.id
