Oil Suddenly “Calms Down” - But Iran Could Be the Next Threat
Oil prices began to stabilize in Asian trading after a four-day rally that marked the biggest increase in more than six months. After the rapid surge, the market is now “catching its breath” while awaiting further geopolitical news.
At the latest level, Brent was hovering around $65 per barrel, while WTI was just below $61 per barrel. Price movements tended to be thin as market participants held positions, awaiting the direction of US policy on Iran.
The main focus turned to the White House meeting on Iran. President Donald Trump encouraged Iranian demonstrators to continue protesting and signaled he would “act” according to developments. If the situation worsens and triggers intervention, Iran's production of around 3.3 million barrels per day is feared to be disrupted—and this is what is keeping the market on alert.
The turmoil in Iran, coupled with the dynamics of Venezuela, has again added a “risk premium” to oil prices. This comes after months of market pressure due to concerns about oversupply, so yesterday's rapid rally was also surprising because many market positions were previously bearish.
However, the market also sees fundamental restraints. Industry reports indicate that US crude oil stocks rose by around 5.3 million barrels last week. If official data confirms this, this surge in stocks could be a reason why oil will struggle to continue its rally in the near term.
On the global supply side, risks are also emerging in the Black Sea. Two tankers were reportedly attacked near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal, a key route for Kazakhstan's oil exports. This security disruption adds to existing issues such as bad weather and damage to berthing facilities, further complicating Kazakhstan's export flow.
In conclusion, oil is now being pulled in two directions: on the one hand, there is the potential for oversupply and rising US stocks; on the other, there are geopolitical risks that could suddenly cut supply. In the near term, developments in Iran could trigger new volatility—and any sign of military action usually quickly pushes prices higher.
5 Key Points:
- Oil stabilizes after its biggest four-day rally in more than six months.
Brent around $65, WTI around $61.
- The market awaits the US meeting on Iran; the risk of Iranian production disruptions is in focus.
- US oil stocks reportedly rose by around 5.3 million barrels.
- Supply risks increase due to attacks near the CPC (Kazakhstan) export terminal. (Asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
