Oil Rebounds Sharply After Trump Pledges Continued Pressure on Iran
World oil prices surged sharply after United States President Donald Trump confirmed that Washington would continue its attacks on Iran in the coming weeks. Market reaction was swift: Reuters reported that Brent crude rose US$6.33, or 6.3%, to US$107.49 per barrel, while WTI jumped US$5.28, or 5.3%, to US$105.40 per barrel. This increase immediately reversed market sentiment, which had previously held hope for a swift end to the war.
The price spike occurred because Trump's speech was deemed to have failed to provide a clear roadmap to a ceasefire. In his speech, Trump did say the strategic objectives of the war were "almost complete" and the conflict could end within two to three weeks. However, at the same time, he also emphasized that attacks on Iran would continue and could even be carried out with great force. For the energy market, this message was interpreted as a signal that supply risks had not subsided and that tensions were still very likely to escalate.
Another factor contributing to the surge in oil prices was the lack of convincing signs of de-escalation. Reuters noted that Trump offered no clarity regarding a ceasefire or concrete diplomatic path, while Iran also denied claims that it had requested a ceasefire. This situation has caused investors to re-introduce a large risk premium into oil prices, especially since the conflict touches a region crucial to global energy flows.
The market is also increasingly sensitive because threats to energy distribution routes have not completely disappeared. Reuters highlighted increasing maritime risks, including an Iranian missile attack on a QatarEnergy-chartered tanker in Qatari waters. At the same time, the International Energy Agency warned that supply disruptions from the Middle East began to be felt in Europe in April. This means that the current oil price spike is not just a headline reaction, but also reflects concerns that the supply crisis could persist for longer.
Cause:
Trump asserted that US attacks on Iran would continue, prompting the market to immediately assess high geopolitical risks.
There was no clarity regarding a ceasefire or an end to the war, so any hopes for de-escalation that had arisen quickly faded.
Brent and WTI surged sharply as the market re-introduced a supply risk premium, with Brent rising to US$107.49 and WTI to US$105.40.
Maritime risks in key energy regions remain high, including attacks on tankers, which have heightened concerns about supply disruptions.
The IEA warned that the impact of supply disruptions began to be felt in Europe in April, making the market increasingly sensitive to any new escalations.
Things to watch:
The future direction of Trump's policies. If Washington continues to emphasize military pressure without a clear peace roadmap, oil prices could remain high.
The security of the Strait of Hormuz and energy shipping lanes. As long as this area remains unsecured, oil volatility will be difficult to subside.
Iran's next response. Any new retaliation from Tehran could immediately increase the risk premium in the energy market.
Impact on global inflation. Rising oil prices risk putting downward pressure on energy costs and logistics, and complicating the direction of central bank interest rates.
Will this surge be sustained or just a temporary spike? That will be largely determined by whether there are any real diplomatic steps in the next few days. (Zaf)
Source: Newsmaker.id
