Iran Tariffs + Ship Attacks: Oil Jumps, Risk Premium Returns
Oil prices climbed on Tuesday, briefly breaking above $65 per barrel for the first time since November before easing back. Brent held in the $64 range after a sharp multi-day rally, while WTI stayed below $60.
The main catalyst was renewed US pressure on Iran. President Donald Trump announced plans for 25% tariffs on any country still doing business with Iran and did not rule out potential military action. That combination pushed traders to reprice geopolitical risk, adding a fresh “risk premium” on fears of disrupted Iranian exports.
Supply concerns also intensified in the Black Sea. Two tankers were reportedly hit by drone attacks while waiting to load near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal—an important outlet for Kazakhstan’s crude exports. Alongside poor weather, security disruptions, and maintenance, loading forecasts have been cut sharply, with shipments estimated at 800,000–900,000 barrels per day, well below earlier expectations.
The market’s “fear of a spike” is showing up in options as well. Traders have been buying upside protection more aggressively, sending demand for Brent call options to unusually high levels. Still, any sustained rally could be capped if confidence grows that extra barrels—such as a potential return of Venezuelan supply—will offset the risk. For now, oil remains supported, but the next move hinges on whether Iran tensions and CPC disruptions turn into material supply losses.
Source: Newsmaker.id
