Iran vs. Global Supply: Oil Extends Rally
Oil prices continued climbing on Tuesday, posting a fourth straight session of gains. Brent is trading around $64.29 per barrel, while WTI is hovering near $59.89, as markets rebuild a “risk premium” on concerns that Iran-related tensions could disrupt supply.
The key trigger is Iran, where major protests have intensified. The situation escalated after President Donald Trump threatened 25% tariffs on any country still doing business with Iran. Traders are now pricing in a higher chance of disruptions to Iranian exports—driven by rising geopolitical risk and stronger economic pressure on Tehran.
Still, markets recognize a major side effect: the tariff threat could reignite trade friction with China, widely seen as a major buyer of Iranian crude. With policy details still unclear, many participants are choosing to hedge—positioning for potential volatility if the Iran situation turns into a more tangible supply shock.
Beyond the Middle East, supply risks are also building elsewhere. Attacks and disruptions tied to the Russia–Ukraine conflict have kept pressure on energy infrastructure and export routes, while flows from Kazakhstan are seen at risk through the CPC terminal. At the same time, the prospect of extra supply from Venezuela—following political shifts and plans to resume exports—acts as a counterweight, limiting the upside. For now, oil stays supported, but the market remains caught in a tug-of-war between supply risk and the possibility of additional barrels returning.
Source: Newsmaker.id
