Oil Holds at 7-Week High, Market Wary of Iranian Exports
Oil prices held at a seven-week high on Monday (January 12th), after the market re-introduced a "risk premium" due to concerns that Iranian exports could be disrupted amid escalating domestic turmoil and a potential response from the United States.
In the latest update, Brent oil was trading at around $63.87/barrel and WTI at around $59.50/barrel.
Market concerns are focused on a possible supply cut from Iran—an OPEC member still under sanctions—especially if domestic pressure leads to logistical or export disruptions. Meanwhile, shipping tracking data shows Iranian oil stored at sea has reached a record 166–170 million barrels, equivalent to about 50 days of production, as Chinese purchases slow and Tehran seeks to "safeguard" supplies against geopolitical risks.
However, the oil rally was restrained by expectations of additional supply from Venezuela, after recent political changes raised the possibility of normalizing exports. Reuters noted that the market is still awaiting evidence of actual supply disruptions before pushing for more aggressive increases.
In addition to Iran and Venezuela, market participants are also monitoring supply risks from Russia amid attacks on energy facilities and the potential for tougher US sanctions against Moscow's energy sector—factors that are keeping volatility high, even as the narrative of a 2026 supply surplus remains dominant.
Source: Newsmaker.id
