Gold Calms, CPI Risks Lurk
Gold edged down 0.2% to $3,633.97/oz on Thursday (04:11 GMT), but remained near the record $3,673.95 reached Tuesday. Investors are holding positions while awaiting US CPI data tonight (12:30 GMT), after the previous PPI figure fell below forecasts and reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut next week.
Consensus expectations: CPI +0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y (from 2.7% y/y in July). Dovish sentiment is also supported by weaker nonfarm payrolls data and historical revisions, which shed around 911,000 jobs. Weekly jobless claims (released simultaneously) will provide further clues on labor market conditions.
The market views a 25 bps cut at the September 16-17 meeting as almost certain, with a small chance of 50 bps. Lower interest rates are generally positive for non-yielding gold. Stay alert: if CPI warms further, the dollar could strengthen and gold is at risk of a short-term correction, although the prospect of policy easing continues to hold back declines.
In other metals, silver edged down 0.1% to $41.10/oz, platinum weakened 0.2% to $1,383.50, and palladium held steady at $1,173.45. On the policy front, the US government appealed a ruling temporarily blocking the impeachment of Fed Chair Lisa Cook, adding political spice ahead of the interest rate decision. (ayu)
Source: Newsmaker.id
