Opportunities & Threats Behind Gold Rally: US$3,580 Breakout or U-Turn?
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Global gold prices are back in the spotlight this morning (September 5th), amid rising global economic uncertainty and aggressive projections from analysts. Goldman Sachs estimates that gold prices could soar to US$5,000 per troy ounce in the next few years if the market loses confidence in the independence of the Federal Reserve (The Fed).
This prediction comes after increasing political intervention in the US central bank, particularly from former President Donald Trump, who is expected to run for re-election in 2026. According to Goldman Sachs, if confidence in independent monetary policy continues to erode, investors will seek out hedge assets like gold en masse.
Meanwhile, recent economic data from the US shows slowing growth in the labor sector, as well as rising jobless claims. This strengthens expectations that the Fed will begin easing its monetary policy in the near future, a condition that generally supports rising gold prices.
However, Citi and HSBC have a different view. Citi predicts that gold prices could slip below US$3,000 by the end of 2025 if investment demand weakens and optimism about global growth increases. HSBC even stated that gold's upward momentum is weakening, and a correction could occur at any time.
Technically, the gold price (XAU/USD) was trading around US$3,550 per troy ounce this morning. Several technical indicators point to overbought market conditions.
Analysts recommend investors remain vigilant against high volatility in the short term. The market's current focus is on the release of US employment data (Non-Farm Payrolls/NFP), scheduled for the next few hours. This data will provide important clues regarding the direction of the Fed's interest rate policy and the subsequent movement of gold prices.
Against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, concerns about the Fed, and increasing technical pressure, gold is at a crucial juncture. The opportunity to reach US$3,650–3,700 remains open if dovish sentiment prevails. However, investors should be prepared for the potential for a sharp correction if these expectations do not materialize. (mrv)
Source: Newsmaker.id
