US Claims Hormuz Open; Oil Prices Stabilize
The US military has stated that the southern lane of the Strait of Hormuz remains free and open to commercial vessels. This lane lies within Omani waters, distinct from the northern route that runs closer to Iran. While this statement does not imply a full return to normal shipping operations in the Strait, it signals that some vessels can still transit with specific security measures in place.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) claims to have assisted over 1,000 vessels in navigating this lane during the ongoing conflict. However, shipping and insurance companies continue to seek broader security assurances, as the threats of attacks, naval mines, and Iranian restrictions have not yet been fully eliminated.
Hopes for normalization have strengthened following remarks by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggesting that a deal with Iran could be reached soon. Talks are reportedly underway between Iran and Oman, mediated by Pakistan and involving indirect participation from Washington; however, no final agreement has been officially announced.
Oil prices have begun to stabilize after sharp declines over the previous two sessions. In Wednesday morning trading, Brent crude edged up to around US$79.62 per barrel, while WTI hovered near US$75.90. The day prior, Brent had plunged more than 5% to close below US$80 as the market factored in the possibility of restored energy flows through Hormuz.
Nevertheless, shipping volumes remain far below pre-conflict levels. The Strait of Hormuz typically handles about one-fifth of the global oil and gas supply; consequently, full normalization requires a political agreement, mine clearance operations, and security guarantees for vessels and their crews.
Newsmaker Analysis: The US statement has exerted bearish pressure on oil prices, yet the market remains cautious because the lane declared open lies on the Omani side, and the agreement with Iran is not yet finalized. Brent could potentially retreat toward the US$77–US$78 range if an agreement is announced. Conversely, a breakdown in negotiations or fresh attacks on vessels could push Brent back above the US$80–US$82 level. For gold, the easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could dampen demand for safe-haven assets; however, the drop in oil prices also exerts downward pressure on inflation and interest rate hike expectations, thereby limiting the decline in gold prices.
Source: Newsmaker.id
