Gold Strengthens as JOLTS Data Softens and Hormuz Tensions Cool
Gold prices rose during Tuesday's trading (August 4) amidst a sharp drop in oil prices and US labor data that came in slightly weaker than expected. By the evening session, spot gold was trading around US$4,079 per troy ounce—up approximately 0.6%—while gold futures climbed to around US$4,136 per troy ounce.
The decline in oil prices provided support for gold. Brent crude plunged 5.3% to US$79.36 per barrel, while WTI fell 5.7% to US$75.77, following hopes that the US and Iran were nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Cheaper oil has the potential to ease inflationary pressures and reduce the need for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further.
Diplomatic optimism grew after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz could be reached soon. Qatar also noted that a de-escalation draft had been circulated among the relevant parties. However, no final agreement has been reached, and Iran maintains that talks are being conducted through mediators rather than directly with Washington.
On the economic front, the number of US job openings fell to 7.359 million in June, coming in below market expectations. May's data was also revised downward to 7.537 million. Nevertheless, hiring remained around 5.3 million, and rates of both voluntary resignations and layoffs stayed relatively stable, indicating that the labor market has not experienced a sharp downturn.
Gold's movement remains confined within the US$4,000–US$4,100 range. Weaker JOLTS data and falling oil prices support gold by dampening expectations for interest rate hikes. Conversely, progress in US-Iran diplomacy reduces the demand for safe-haven assets, thereby limiting price gains.
Newsmaker Analysis: As long as it holds above US$4,050, gold retains the potential to test the US$4,100 resistance level. A strong breakout above that level could pave the way for a rise toward the US$4,135–US$4,150 range. However, should the price fall back below US$4,050, the US$4,020–US$4,000 zone could become the next target. Market attention is now shifting to labor market data—specifically Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)—which could shape expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate policy. (arl)
Source: Newsmaker.id
