Tankers Begin to Bust Through Hormuz, Energy Market Confidence Increases
Shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to show signs of recovery after tensions in the Persian Gulf region eased. An increasing number of tankers are passing through the Strait with active satellite tracking signals, or AIS. This indicates that ship owners, energy traders, and market participants are gaining more confidence in sending vessels through one of the world's most important energy routes.
According to ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, seven tankers were in or had passed through the Strait of Hormuz as of Tuesday. These included two non-Iranian supertankers carrying full cargoes. All of the vessels were publicly broadcasting their locations. This change is seen as a sign of improving shipping confidence, as Iran is expected to refrain from targeting passing vessels.
However, the market has not yet fully considered the situation secure. Kpler senior crude oil analyst Muyu Xu cautioned that it remains to be seen whether safe and unrestricted shipping lanes will truly be realized. This is because some vessels still choose to turn off their transponder signals while passing through parts of the Strait. One example is another supertanker that entered the Persian Gulf with its signal turned off, before reappearing after passing through the area.
The restoration of the Strait of Hormuz is of great concern because the waterway had been virtually shut down since the outbreak of war in late February. Now, millions of barrels of oil are returning to the waterway at the highest rate since the conflict began. Iran has also declared that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to commercial shipping and that large volumes of oil are passing through it. This has contributed to pressure on oil prices, which have fallen nearly 40% from their peak during the height of the conflict.
In peacetime, approximately 135 vessels typically transit the Strait of Hormuz daily. These vessels carry oil, oil products, natural gas, containers, bulk products, and even livestock. The AIS system is crucial because it is needed by insurance companies, financiers, and law enforcement to ensure transparency of ship movements. If more vessels return their signals publicly, the oil and shipping markets will have a clearer picture of the recovery of energy flows from the Persian Gulf.
One vessel of concern is the VLCC Universal Glory, which entered the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday morning from the Persian Gulf carrying approximately 2 million barrels of Saudi crude oil. The ship took a route near the center of the strait and listed South Korea as its destination. Behind it were two product tankers, while another Norwegian-flagged vessel and another VLCC moved along the coast of Oman. The day before, three VLCCs carrying Iranian crude oil also publicly broadcast their crossings.
Although signs of recovery are increasingly visible, caution remains. Some vessels are still choosing to turn off their transponders for part of their journeys because security risks have not yet fully disappeared. However, if the trend of ships turning on their signals continues, this could signal growing market confidence in the stability of the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, pressure on oil prices could persist as the risk of supply disruptions decreases. Conversely, if tensions escalate again, this route still has the potential to trigger spikes in global energy prices. (gn)
Source: Newsmaker.id
