OPEC+ September: Increase Supply or Bluff?
OPEC+ has decided to increase production by ~547,000 barrels per day (kbpd) starting in September 2025 compared to the “required” level in August. This decision was made at a meeting on August 3 and officially announced by OPEC.
This September increase is part of a plan to gradually unwind the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts that began in April 2025; previously, quotas had also been increased by 411 kbpd in June. Several industry reports indicate that the September move completes the unwinding of the latest voluntary cut package.
From a market perspective, the higher production target for September is pushing global supply projections up again this year, according to the IEA—in line with OPEC+'s recent shift in strategy toward restoring supply rather than withholding production. Consequently, the price rally is likely to be restrained if supply actually increases and compliance is high.
What to monitor: (1) member countries' compliance with the new quotas and (2) the outcome of the next meeting on September 7, which could set the direction for fourth-quarter production. Uncertainty in these two factors will determine whether oil prices remain within the current range or move beyond it. (ayu)
Source: Newsmaker.id
