Fed’s Goolsbee Says US Labor Market Still Looks Stable
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said the labor market appears largely stable despite a bumpy series of data on the US jobs landscape.
Pointing to the average payroll numbers over recent months, Goolsbee said Friday in a question-and-answer session in Chicago, “to me that feels like in that sustainable, full employment kind of place.”
He declined to say whether he intends to support a cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, but repeated that he expects rates will be “a fair bit lower” a year from now.
His remarks followed new data showing hiring rebounded in November following an October disrupted by storms and strikes. Employers added 227,000 jobs, and wages exceeded expectations. Yet, those strong figures came alongside an uptick in unemployment. That likely leaves policymakers keen to see inflation data due next week before they gather in Washington Dec. 17-18.
Goolsbee said any pause in the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle would come if conditions in inflation or the labor-market change.
He reiterated his view that despite some stickiness in recent price data, he’s still considers overall progress on inflation to be encouraging.
In a separate question-and-answer session with journalists on Friday, the Chicago Fed chief said that within the next 12 months, he expects interest rates to fall toward a level at which policymakers believe it will neither stimulate nor weigh on the economy.
“In the long arc, it feels to me like conditions say rates are going to be a fair bit lower a year from now than they are today, and the speed at which we’re going down to that will probably slow as we go over the course of the year,” Goolsbee said.
Fed officials’ estimates for the neutral rate — which can’t be precisely measured — ranged from 2.4% to 3.8% in September, the last time they released economic projections. The median estimate of 2.9% has risen over the past few years.
“We’re all trying to figure out what truly is the field guide, as I describe it, to what neutral is,” Goolsbee said, adding that it makes sense to slow down the pace of rate cuts as they figure that out.
Policymakers have reduced rates by three quarters of a percentage point since September and will consider another quarter-point reduction at their final meeting of the year. Investors and economists then see a slower pace of rate cuts, with the Fed likely delivering just two to three additional quarter-point reductions in 2025.
Source : Bloomberg
