Gold Corrects Slightly Below $5,000, Strong Dollar & US Data Leading Today's Trend
Gold prices moved slightly lower on Thursday (February 19th) after a sharp rally in the previous session, as the market reconsidered the direction of US interest rates and awaited a series of key economic data. Spot gold fell around 0.2% to $4,968/oz, while US gold futures also weakened to around $4,988/oz.
Pressure came from the strengthening US dollar, which hit its highest level in more than a week, making gold relatively more expensive for holders of other currencies. Movements also tended to be volatile because liquidity in Asia was thin due to the Lunar New Year holiday in some markets, so price fluctuations could be more pronounced even without a major new catalyst.
Investors remained firmly focused on the Fed's policy message. The minutes of the FOMC meeting (January 27–28, 2026) showed officials agreed to hold interest rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but their outlook was divided: some left open the possibility of a cut if disinflation persists, while several participants also mentioned the option of a rate hike if inflation hardens again. The discussion also touched on the uncertainty surrounding the impact of AI—some saw the potential for a boost to productivity, while others worried about risks to financial stability.
On the agenda, the market awaits the release of Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Index later this evening, which could influence interest rate expectations through dollar and yield movements. After that, the main focus will turn to PCE inflation data (the Fed's favorite), scheduled for release on Friday, as it could change the timing of expectations for the next interest rate cut.
Technically, gold is considered to remain in a consolidation phase after several volatile sessions. OCBC strategists assess that gold's short-term range is potentially in the $4,800–$5,100 range, highlighting the $5,000 area as a key psychological level: a break and hold above it could open the door to a test of the next resistance level, while failure to do so would likely lead the price back to the nearest support area.
Beyond data and the Fed, the market also remains sensitive to geopolitical headlines. Earlier in the week, signals of progress in US–Iran talks dampened demand for safe-haven assets and pushed gold down more than 2% in a single session—suggesting that shifts in the geopolitical narrative could still quickly shift sentiment.
Today's closely watched technical levels (XAU/USD):
Resistance: $5,000, then $5,100
Support: $4,970–$4,960, then $4,900 and $4,800
With liquidity not yet fully normalized, gold's movement is likely to remain "rapid," especially during the release of US data this evening WIB and ahead of Friday's PCE.
Source: Newsmaker.id
