Geneva Today: US–Iran: One Headline Could Shake Gold & Oil
The second round of US–Iran nuclear talks is being held today in Geneva, Switzerland, with communication channels mediated by Oman. The official schedule has not been made public, but sources say it will take place Tuesday morning Geneva time, which falls roughly midday to early afternoon Western Indonesian Time.
The main agenda remains the “nuclear package”: the US is pressing for a halt to uranium enrichment, while Iran rejects the “zero enrichment” scheme and demands continued enrichment rights in exchange for sanctions relief. Washington also wants the discussions to expand to other issues such as its missile program, but Tehran insists the focus must be on nuclear-for-sanctions.
Outside the negotiating table, the IAEA is also a deciding factor. The UN nuclear watchdog is pressing Iran for clarification on the status of approximately 440 kg of enriched uranium and for inspection access at key facilities, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan—previously affected by attacks.
Political signals from Washington are also adding to tensions. President Donald Trump said he would be involved "indirectly," accusing Iran of wanting a deal, but still asserting there would be consequences if an agreement wasn't reached amidst the US's increased military presence in the region.
From a geopolitical perspective, the market is also focusing on Iran's activities in the most sensitive energy routes. The Revolutionary Guard's naval exercises around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil shipping corridor, have led market participants to reassert a "risk premium," especially as they are conducted just ahead of negotiations.
The impact on oil is highly dependent on the headline outcome: if talks signal de-escalation/progress, the risk premium can quickly diminish, leading to a weakening oil price. Conversely, if negotiations stall or rhetoric intensifies, the market typically increases the risk premium, potentially leading to a surge in oil prices due to the sensitivity of Hormuz and the threat of supply disruptions.
The impact on gold is generally the opposite of risk sentiment: news of progress tends to depress safe-haven demand, potentially pressuring gold, although the decline can be contained if the market continues to price in a Fed interest rate cut. However, if talks fail and the risk of conflict rises, gold typically receives a safe-haven boost and can move more sharply, especially when market liquidity is thin. (Asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
