NFP Far Below Expectations, Crypto Gets a Breath of Fresh Air
Bitcoin strengthened on Thursday (July 2nd) and returned above the US$61,000 level after weaker-than-expected US employment data came out. This data eased market concerns that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates soon.
Bitcoin is currently trading around US$61,427, after hitting an intraday high of US$62,056 and a low of US$59,541. This increase indicates an improvement in short-term sentiment after the world's largest cryptocurrency was sharply depressed throughout the first half of 2026.
The main support came from the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The US economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, far below market expectations of around 110,000 to 115,000. The May figure was also revised down to 129,000, reinforcing signs that labor market momentum is starting to slow.
Although the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, the decline was partly due to weakening labor force participation. This condition led the market to believe the Fed has more room to hold interest rates, at least in the short term.
For Bitcoin, weaker labor data is a positive sentiment because it reduces pressure from expectations of interest rate hikes. High interest rates typically weigh on speculative assets like crypto, as investors tend to choose dollar-based assets or bonds that offer more defined returns.
However, fundamental pressures on Bitcoin have not completely disappeared. Throughout the first six months of 2026, Bitcoin still recorded a decline of more than 30%. This decline was triggered by a combination of ETF outflows, declining risk appetite, and increased investor interest in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks.
Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs remain a market concern. ETF products, previously a major catalyst for crypto, are now showing institutional selling pressure. As long as fund flows into ETFs remain consistently positive, Bitcoin's upside potential remains limited.
Furthermore, investors are still monitoring geopolitical uncertainty related to talks between the United States and Iran. Although the diplomatic process is ongoing, there is no complete certainty regarding a permanent agreement. This situation has caused market participants to remain cautious about high-risk assets.
In the altcoin market, Ethereum is trading around US$1,624.95. XRP is hovering around US$1,059. Several other altcoins, such as Solana and Cardano, also strengthened after US payroll data eased concerns about interest rate hikes.
Overall, Bitcoin's current rebound is largely driven by macroeconomic sentiment following the weak NFP data. To maintain recovery momentum, Bitcoin needs to stay above the US$60,000 area and consistently break through the US$62,000 to US$63,000 resistance.
If interest rate pressures continue to ease and ETF outflows begin to decrease, Bitcoin has the potential to continue its rebound. However, if the Fed signals another hawkish stance or the US dollar strengthens again, Bitcoin's price is still at risk of falling back to the US$60,000 to US$59,000 area. (arl)
Source: Newsmaker.id
