Ceasefire & OPEC+ Pressure Global Oil Prices
World oil prices fell on Monday (6/30/2025) amid easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of increased supply from OPEC+. Brent crude for August contracts fell 12 cents to $67.65 per barrel, while the more active September contract was at $66.56. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also fell 36 cents to $65.16 per barrel.
This decline occurred after a ceasefire between Iran and Israel was announced by President Donald Trump. Previously, tensions peaked when the US bombed Iran's nuclear facilities, which had pushed Brent prices above $80 per barrel. However, since the announcement of the ceasefire, the market has removed most of the geopolitical risk premium previously embedded in oil prices.
Additional pressure comes from OPEC+'s plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in August, following a similar increase in May to July. The official OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for July 6. If agreed, it would be the fifth straight month that the group has raised output, as part of its strategy to end production cuts that began in April.
On the demand side, however, the market is still clouded by concerns about a global economic slowdown, particularly in China. Manufacturing activity in the country has continued to weaken over the past three months due to weak domestic demand and exports. This makes the global growth outlook uncertain and also limits the room for oil prices to rise in the short term.
Source: (ayu-Newsmaker)
