Oil Rises, Gulf Supply Threatened
Oil prices are headed for their biggest weekly gain since April as the conflict between the United States and Iran again threatens energy supplies from the Middle East. Brent rose above US$85 per barrel and has the potential to strengthen by around 12% in a week, while WTI is moving closer to US$80 per barrel.
Tensions have escalated after the US launched another wave of attacks on Iran, including targeting defense facilities. These attacks followed previous operations that hit oil tankers near Iran's main export terminal, heightening market concerns about the security of energy supplies.
The risk of conflict is also spreading to other countries in the region. Qatar, a mediator in peace talks, stated that its forces successfully intercepted a missile targeting the country. At the same time, Iran reportedly asked the Houthi group in Yemen to close the Bab el-Mandeb access route to the Red Sea if Iran's electricity infrastructure is attacked.
This situation has increased market focus on two crucial energy routes: the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Hormuz is the route for approximately one-fifth of global oil flows, while Bab el-Mandeb is a vital route for Saudi Arabian oil exports. If both are disrupted simultaneously, pressure on the global energy supply chain could escalate sharply.
As a result, oil prices have the potential to remain high as long as shipping security risks persist. The market is now not only awaiting diplomatic opportunities but also observing whether tankers can continue to operate amid the threat of attacks. If disruptions continue, energy prices could again drive up global inflation and make central banks more cautious about interest rate policy. (asd)*
Source: Newsmaker.id
