Oil Jumps 5%, Hormuz Risks Rise
Oil prices surged more than 5% on Monday amid growing concerns that the US-Iran ceasefire could collapse after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship, while traffic in the Strait of Hormuz reportedly remained largely halted. Market sentiment is again sensitive to supply risks, as the waterway is a crucial chokepoint for global energy shipments.
Brent crude futures rose $5.08, or 5.62%, to $95.46 per barrel at 04:18 GMT, while WTI crude futures gained $5.01, or 5.97%, to $88.86 per barrel. These gains reversed sharp losses at the end of last week.
Both contracts had previously fallen 9% on Friday, their biggest daily drop since April 18, after Iran declared the commercial waterway in Hormuz “open” during the ceasefire period and President Donald Trump said Iran had agreed not to close the strait again. However, analysts said that optimism quickly faded after reports of security incidents involving ships attempting to pass through.
June Goh, senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, noted that within 24 hours of the "completely open" announcement, a tanker had been fired upon, raising new concerns for shipping. He added that fundamentals are deteriorating, with approximately 10–11 million barrels per day of oil production still shut down, making restoring supply difficult.
On the geopolitical front, the US announced on Sunday that it had seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to breach the blockade, while Iran said it would retaliate and refuse to participate in a second round of negotiations before the two-week ceasefire ends this week. Saul Kavonic, head of research at MST Marquee, believes oil prices are still fluctuating following changing narratives on social media, while the reality on the ground remains challenging for normalizing oil flows. He believes the announcement of the strait's opening is premature, and shipowners will be more cautious without security assurances. Kpler data shows more than 20 vessels passing through on Saturday carrying oil, LPG, metals, and fertilizer, the highest number since March 1.
5 key points:
- Oil rises >5% as the risk of a US-Iran ceasefire increases, triggered by the seizure of an Iranian vessel and disruptions to Hormuz traffic.
- Brent rose to $95.46 (+5.62%) and WTI to $88.86 (+5.97%) at 04:18 GMT.
- The market reversed course after both contracts fell 9% last Friday due to claims of an open Hormuz channel and signs of optimism.
- Analysts assess that shipping risks remain high; there are reports of tankers being fired upon and around 10–11 million bpd of production remaining shut in.
- Volatility is driven by a tug-of-war over headlines; ship owners are likely to hold off on shipping without certainty of safety, although >20 vessels passed through on Saturday (Kpler data).(asd)
Sumber: Newsmaker.id*
