Oil Prices Stable—Market Weighs Two Risks
Oil prices attempted to stabilize at the start of the week. After initially being pressured by the release of the Middle East risk premium, the market began to "hold on" in the European session due to a supporting factor: news that Indian refineries were increasingly moving away from buying Russian oil.
Current price update (European session): around 11:38 a.m. London time (6:37 p.m. WIB), Brent was at $67.29 and WTI at $63.05.
Market direction is still influenced by the US-Iran diplomatic path. The promise of continued talks has somewhat eased fears of short-term supply disruptions—which is why oil is no longer "panic" like when tensions escalated. On the other hand, the Strait of Hormuz remains a sensitive point because this route is crucial for global oil flows.
But there's a "second story" that's giving prices a basis: Russia. Europe is pushing for restrictions on services that support Russian oil exports by sea, and at the same time, there are signals that Indian refineries are avoiding buying Russian cargoes for April delivery. If Russian flows become increasingly sluggish or discounts have to deepen to find other buyers, the market could tighten again on the supply side.
In conclusion, oil is currently in a tug-of-war phase: slightly cooling Middle East tensions are holding back gains, but the Russia-India issue provides a cushion to prevent prices from falling too easily. If geopolitical headlines change or Russia's export policies become more stringent, the price movements could return to wild swings in a matter of hours.
Source: Newsmaker.id
