Oil Holds Direction, Trump Leads the Way
Oil prices are holding steady as traders await US President Donald Trump's speech at Davos, amid renewed tensions between the US and European allies over Greenland. The market appears to be holding back: not daring to buy aggressively, but also lacking sufficient grounds for selling heavily.
The source of the anxiety is clear: the US push to take control of Greenland is escalating transatlantic relations and raising the risk of a trade war. Europe has signaled its readiness to respond if the tariff threat actually materializes, as the impact could depress economic growth—and if the economy slows, energy demand will also weaken.
From a fundamental perspective, the IEA delivered mixed news. They raised their projection for global oil demand growth in 2026 to around 930,000 barrels per day, while slightly reducing their forecast for oversupply. But the bottom line remains the same: the market still faces a large surplus that is preventing prices from rising too much.
The IEA also assesses that the global supply surplus remains at around 3.69 million barrels per day, although slightly smaller than previously estimated. This means that even though geopolitics are making headlines, the oil market remains overshadowed by the classic myth: supply outpacing demand.
Meanwhile, another focus is Venezuela. The US government is reportedly planning to open up access to Venezuelan oil purchases to more trading companies, not just certain major players—and this could add to the supply dynamics in the market. But today, analysts say, the market feels like it's being "driven by Trump": other factors are being overlooked as everyone awaits what he will say at Davos. (alg)
Source: Newsmaker.id
