Oil Rebounds, Market Awaits Venezuelan 'Direction'
Oil prices rebounded on Thursday, paring some of the declines of the previous two sessions, as the market digested increasingly aggressive US moves to control Venezuelan oil flows.
WTI (Feb) was around $57.1/barrel, while Brent was around $61.2/barrel.
The main narrative remains about "who controls the oil flow": the US is said to want to regulate Venezuelan oil sales and is starting to offer stored crude, while PDVSA has stated it is negotiating with Washington under a scheme similar to the one previously used by Chevron.
The market believes the biggest impact is not the immediate surge in Venezuelan production, but rather a shift in trade routes—more barrels flowing to the US, resulting in a reduction in the share of key buyers in Asia.
Despite bullish geopolitical catalysts, price gains are still restrained by concerns about loose global supply in early 2026—especially if Venezuelan exports increase while OPEC+ and other producers also maintain high supply.
Outside of Venezuela, the market is also monitoring technical factors/flows: the annual commodity index rebalancing period could potentially generate additional flows into oil in the coming days, which could increase price volatility, although the broader trend is still driven by global supply and demand.
Source: Newsmaker.id
