Oil Prices Stable in Early 2026, OPEC+ and Venezuela in Focus
Oil prices stabilized on the first trading day of 2026 after closing 2025 with the biggest annual decline since 2020. Market participants are now weighing two main factors: the direction of OPEC+ supply policy and rising geopolitical risks, including Venezuela and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Brent is trading around US$61 per barrel, while WTI is near US$58. Both weakened ahead of the New Year holiday, but began to pare losses as the market reopened.
The greatest attention is focused on the OPEC+ meeting on January 4 via video conference. The producer group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is expected to maintain its decision to hold back supply increases, meaning it will not resume production increases anytime soon.
Geopolitically, the Trump administration has increased pressure on Venezuelan oil exports by imposing sanctions on companies in Hong Kong and mainland China, as well as on several vessels accused of circumventing restrictions. This move is seen as tightening Venezuelan oil distribution channels to the global market.
At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine escalation escalated again when both sides attacked each other's Black Sea ports over the New Year period. The attacks reportedly damaged critical infrastructure, including refineries, sparking concerns about regional supply disruptions.
Despite this cushioning of geopolitical risks, the market remains clouded by a major issue: the potential for a global oversupply. Oil prices have fallen by about a fifth through 2025 due to concerns about a supply glut following previous OPEC+ production increases, coupled with output growth from rival producers. The International Energy Agency (IEA) even projects a surplus of around 3.8 million barrels per day this year.
Analysts believe geopolitical tensions could support prices in the short term, but downward pressure is still possible in the first quarter if oversupply concerns persist or there are signs of progress toward a peace agreement in Ukraine. In the Asian session, Brent crude for March rose about 0.6% to US$61.20, while WTI crude for February rose 0.6% to US$57.77. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
