Oil Rises Again, But Market Remains Nervous
Oil prices rose for a second day as the market re-priced the geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and the potential for renewed pressure on Russia. Brent briefly approached $61 before fluctuating, while WTI held above $56. Essentially, political issues and the risk of supply disruptions are temporarily overshadowing concerns about a global surplus.
The main trigger came from the US's blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan tankers. Trump accused Venezuela of "usurping" US energy rights, and there was also a previous seizure of a vessel off the Venezuelan coast. This combination has raised concerns among market participants about the potential disruption of oil flows from Venezuela or the impediment of shipments.
At the same time, the US is also said to be preparing a new package of sanctions against the Russian energy sector if Putin rejects the Ukraine peace agreement. Options being discussed include suppressing the "shadow fleet" of tankers and those facilitating Russian exports. While not yet finalized, these rumors and preparations are enough to raise market alertness.
However, fundamentally, the oil market remains less bullish. The main concern remains: global supply is predicted to exceed demand. WTI even touched its lowest level since 2021 earlier this week, and several market indicators from the Middle East to the US show signs of weaker demand.
Liquidity is also starting to thin ahead of the Christmas holidays, making price movements more likely to be explosive as fewer orders can drive prices more significantly. This makes the coming sessions prone to volatility: even a small headline could trigger a spike or a rapid correction.
Future outlook: In the short term, oil prices tend to be sensitive to headlines—if Venezuela/Russia tensions escalate, oil could continue to rebound, and Brent could potentially hold above $60. However, if the situation eases, the market is likely to refocus on the supply surplus, so the rally could quickly run out of steam and prices are vulnerable to falling again. In general, as long as global demand data remains intact, the oil rally is more easily considered a temporary rebound, rather than a long-term uptrend. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
