Oil Rage Again, What's Going On?
Global oil prices rebounded from their lowest level since October, driven by positive sentiment in global financial markets. Brent strengthened to near $62 per barrel after falling 1.5% in the previous session, while WTI hovered around $58 per barrel. This increase is in line with the strengthening of Asian stock markets, following new records in US and global stock markets after the Fed cut interest rates for the third consecutive time.
However, fundamentally, the oil outlook remains bearish. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reiterated its projection of an unprecedented supply surplus, although slightly lower than last month's prediction. Global oil inventories have now risen to their highest level in four years. According to Haris Khurshid of Karobaar Capital, the current price increase is more due to "going with the flow" of market optimism, while the actual oversupply problem remains unresolved.
From a geopolitical perspective, tensions have also provided additional support for oil prices. US President Donald Trump announced new sanctions against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's nephew and six oil tankers, after the US seized a supertanker off the Venezuelan coast. This measure is being called a new phase of economic pressure to cut off the flow of oil revenues to the Maduro regime. However, analysts believe that as long as these sanctions don't significantly disrupt export flows or shipping routes, the impact remains more of a headline risk than a structural shock to supply. Meanwhile, Brazilian oil production is recovering from disruptions that cut production by more than 300,000 barrels per day last month, adding to new supply from the Americas.
For financial markets, the combination of the Fed's interest rate cut, rising oil prices, and geopolitical tensions has had several impacts. The US dollar tends to be slightly pressured by lower interest rates, but its status as a major global currency remains supportive. Gold and silver are typically less desirable during times of optimistic market sentiment (risk-on), so they could experience short-term selling pressure, although interest rate cuts remain a supportive factor on the other side. For oil, positive sentiment and geopolitical factors are helping prices rise, but the global oversupply limits the potential for a major rally. Overall, this situation creates a pattern: oil rises slowly with the risk of a correction, the dollar tends to be mixed, while gold and silver are more sensitive to a combination of dollar direction, interest rates, and changes in market risk appetite. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
