Russia Ships Oil to India, But Market Still Fears Oversupply
Oil prices held steady at the start of the week, with Brent trading just below US$64 per barrel and WTI nearing US$60 per barrel, after posting their first consecutive weekly gain since August. Market participants are now focused on Russia-India energy relations, following Russian President Vladimir Putin's pledge to ensure "uninterrupted fuel deliveries" to India. This pledge has the potential to be a key topic of discussion when US negotiators visit the South Asian nation for trade talks.
Meanwhile, the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict remain a major factor shaping market sentiment. Peace efforts are ongoing, but US President Donald Trump has expressed disappointment with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's stance on US proposals to end the war. On the ground, tensions have escalated after Ukraine attacked Russian energy infrastructure, including the CPC terminal in the Black Sea, a key export route. This attack restricted loading activity and pushed up physical oil prices, while other energy facilities were also targeted.
However, despite these geopolitical risks, the oil market remains haunted by concerns about a global oversupply. Higher production from OPEC+ countries and producers outside the cartel, such as the US, Brazil, and Guyana, has the potential to outpace sluggish demand growth. Major institutions such as the EIA, IEA, and OPEC are scheduled to release monthly market reports this week, which will serve as important guidance for market participants. Some analysts even predict that if Russian oil flows continue to successfully evade sanctions, Brent prices could be pushed down to near US$60 per barrel by 2026, indicating that the threat of oversupply is unlikely to disappear anytime soon. (az)
Source: Newsmaker.id
