Oil Ticks Up as Geopolitical Risks Counter Russia Port Restart
Oil reversed earlier losses as signs that activity had resumed at a key Russian port were countered by wider geopolitical risks to prices.
Brent was marginally higher above $64 a barrel, after adding more than 2% on Friday following an attack on Russia’s Novorossiysk facility. Two tankers moored on Sunday at the port, indicating operational activity.
The attack on Novorossiysk, along with Iran’s seizure of an oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, injected a fresh geopolitical premium into prices as the market faces pressure from an emerging global surplus. Traders are also monitoring the Trump Administration’s plans in Venezuela, with Politico reporting that the US may allow President Maduro to leave the country if he is ousted. President Trump said Sunday that talks with the Venezuelan government may be possible.
Those risks are countering moves by OPEC+ and producers from outside of the group to ramp up output. The increases leave most traders expecting a significant surplus over the coming months.
“Brent crude oil prices continue to fluctuate in a $60-$70 a-barrel range, with the market focus shifting to how Russian oil exports will evolve over the coming months,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo wrote in a note. “The market appears skeptical that Russia will struggle to export its oil barrels.”
Moscow’s oil has begun to trade at a significant discount in recent days as the deadline nears for fresh sanctions to kick in. Prices are at the lowest level in over two-and-a-half years, according to Argus Media data. That’s boosting attention on the amount of oil on tankers at sea, which climbed to a fresh record last week, according to Vortexa figures.
Meanwhile, refinery margins have surged as relentless attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, outages at key plants in Asia and Africa, and permanent closures across Europe and the US cut diesel and gasoline supplies. Speculators last week had their biggest outright bullish positioning on Europe’s diesel benchmark since 2022.
Brent for January settlement rose 0.3% to $64.61 a barrel at 8:52 a.m. in New York.
WTI for December delivery gained 0.4% to $60.31 a barrel.
Source : Bloomberg
