Oil Prices Fall for Second Week
Oil prices are poised to decline for a second week. Brent briefly approached $64/barrel and WTI around $60, but both are still heading for a weekly loss of around 2%. Pressure is coming from rising global supply: OPEC+ has begun to release previously halted supplies, while production in Brazil and the US is also increasing. Since the start of the year, Brent has fallen approximately 15%. The IEA last month even predicted a record supply glut in 2026, and narrowing prompt spreads indicate the market has been moving into a bearish structure since June.
On the geopolitical front, supply risks from Russia are providing limited support for prices. Ukraine is escalating attacks on Moscow's energy infrastructure, while the US is increasing pressure through sanctions on major OPEC+ producers. Most recently, the US Treasury Department rejected a license for Gunvor to purchase Lukoil's international assets, prompting the commodity trader to withdraw its offer. The cancelled asset package included global upstream production equivalent to Ecuador's daily output. Nevertheless, overall sentiment remains bearish. Vanda Insights analyst Vandana Hari expects the downtrend to continue amid abundant supply—although not a "straight line" as the market remains wary of the impact of sanctions on Russia.
Looking ahead, market participants await a series of supply-demand balance reports from the IEA and OPEC next week for fresh guidance. At the same time, President Donald Trump's comments opening the door to lifting sanctions on Iran—which pumped around 3.4 million barrels per day in October—add another layer of uncertainty on the supply side. The combination of mounting supply and policy uncertainty keeps the short-term price bias bearish, with potential for increased volatility. (az)
Source: Newsmaker.id
