Goldman Sachs Raises Year-End Gold Price Forecast To $3,100
Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,100 an ounce, up from $2,890, citing continued central bank demand.
The bank estimates that “structurally higher central bank demand will add 9% to gold prices by year-end, combined with a gradual increase in ETF holdings as the federal funds rate declines.”
That should outweigh the drag from investor positioning normalization, assuming uncertainty eases, Goldman Sachs added.
However, if policy uncertainty, including tariff concerns, remains elevated, Goldman sees potential for gold to surge to $3,300 an ounce by year-end on continued speculative positioning.
The bank has also revised its central bank demand assumption upward to 50 tonnes per month from its previous estimate of 41 tonnes.
If purchases average 70 tonnes per month, gold prices could rise to $3,200 an ounce by the end of 2025, assuming a return to normal, Goldman said.
Conversely, if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady, the bank expects gold to reach $3,060 an ounce over the same period, the bank added.
Reiterating its “Go for Gold” trading recommendation, Goldman Sachs said that while declining uncertainty could lead to tactical price declines, a long gold position remains a strong hedge.
This is particularly relevant in the face of potential trade tensions, Federal Reserve subordination risks, and financial threats or recessions, which could push prices toward the upper end of Goldman’s high uncertainty range, the bank said.
Additionally, if concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability intensify, Goldman Sachs expects gold to rise 5% to $3,250 an ounce by December 2025.
Rising fears about inflation and fiscal risks could push speculative positions and ETF flows higher, while concerns about U.S. debt sustainability could prompt central banks, especially those with large U.S. Treasury reserves, to increase their gold purchases, the investment bank added. (ads)
Source: Investing.com
