Hassett: Jobs Could Slow—But It's Not a Warning Sign Yet
US National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett signaled that the market should be prepared for lower job creation figures in the coming months. He said that's not necessarily bad news—because US population growth is slowing, so the need for "additional jobs" to maintain a stable labor market is also decreasing.
In an interview on CNBC on Monday (February 9), Hassett said lower job numbers could still be consistent with a strong economy. He emphasized that as long as economic growth and productivity remain strong, less-than-usual job growth shouldn't be immediately interpreted as a sign of weakness.
The immediate focus is the January jobs report, scheduled for release Wednesday. Consensus estimates an increase of around 69,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.4%. The market is waiting to see whether this data confirms the "slow but healthy" narrative or raises new concerns.
This report will also include historical revisions, which are expected to lead to significant downward adjustments to payroll data for the period through March 2025. This means that the market will not only read this month's figures, but also a "re-mapping" of employment trends over the past year.
Hassett concluded with an important point: the "safety level" standard for holding unemployment—often called the breakeven level—is now considered much lower than in previous eras. The message to the market is clear: if job creation figures decline, it doesn't necessarily mean the economy is weakening—it could simply be that the baseline has changed.
Source: Newsmaker.id
