US Deficit Drops to US$60.3 Billion
The United States trade deficit was recorded at US$60.3 billion, narrower than the market forecast of US$61.0 billion. This data indicates a slightly better-than-expected US trade position, although it remains wider than the previous period's US$57.3 billion.
Overall, this figure sends mixed signals to the market. On the one hand, a better-than-expected result could support the US dollar as it indicates the deficit is not as deep as feared. However, on the other hand, the widening compared to the previous month still indicates that pressure on the US trade balance has not completely eased.
For the gold market, this data is not yet strong enough to immediately change the direction of price movements. If the US dollar receives support from better-than-expected actual figures, gold could potentially hold. However, because the deficit remains wider than the previous month, pressure on the dollar has not completely dissipated.
Market focus will now likely shift to the ISM Services PMI data, which is considered more influential in determining expectations for the Fed's interest rate. If the ISM Services PMI weakens, gold still has the potential to continue rising. However, if US services sector data comes out stronger than expected, the dollar and yields could potentially rise, putting further pressure on gold prices.
Causes
The still-large deficit indicates that US imports may remain high or that exports may not be strong enough to cover the trade gap. However, because the actual results were better than forecasts, the market views the trade balance pressure as less severe than previously thought.
Things to Watch
Tonight's key areas to watch are the reactions of the DXY, US bond yields, and the ISM Services PMI data. The Trade Balance provided an initial boost, but gold's ultimate direction will likely become clearer after the release of US services sector data.(CP)
Sumber: Newsmaker.id
