Below Expectations! US CPI Slows to 2.4%
US inflation is once again the center of market attention, as the January CPI release has the potential to alter the direction of Fed interest rate expectations. Economists' consensus forecasts for headline CPI to rise by +0.3% (MoM) and slow to around +2.5% (YoY) from the previous +2.7%—a decrease, but still far from "safe" given the Fed's 2% inflation target.
For core CPI—which the market typically listens to more because it strips out food and energy components—estimates point to +0.3% (MoM) and +2.5% (YoY) (from +2.6%). This figure is important because it can determine whether the Fed has room to ease more quickly or whether it remains comfortable in a higher-for-longer mode.
Although the CPI is not the Fed's favorite leading indicator (they focus more on PCE), the CPI release often triggers volatility because it immediately changes market pricing: from the dollar and bond yields to gold and stocks. Especially after the latest relatively strong employment data, the market has become more sensitive—a "hotter"-than-expected CPI could push back the interest rate cut narrative.
Quick note: there's a "January CPI 2.4% YoY" narrative circulating in some places, but the most credible mainstream sources at the time of this search still emphasize a forecast of around 2.5% YoY, and the publicly available BLS CPI page still displays the latest release in December 2025 (the January release is listed as "Next Release"). (alg)
Source: Newsmaker.id
