German IFO Release Will EUR/USD Surprise?
The German IFO survey for November is scheduled for release on Monday at 09:00 GMT. The Business Climate Index is expected to rise slightly to 88.5 from 88.4 in October. This figure is a key indicator for measuring the health of the German economy, Europe's largest economy. Therefore, IFO data is often watched by the market as an early signal of the direction of Eurozone growth.
If the survey results match expectations, EUR/USD is likely to remain calm without major movements. However, if German business activity declines sharply, the euro could be under pressure, as market participants view it as a sign of economic weakness. Currently, the euro is still supported by expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain interest rates until the end of 2026, as inflation is approaching its target and unemployment is low.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is facing pressure from growing speculation of a Fed rate cut in December. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 71% chance of a 25 bps rate cut, up from 42% a week earlier. This sentiment is helping EUR/USD hold its ground despite the still bearish technical conditions.
Technically, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1520. With the 14-day RSI still below 50, it indicates that selling pressure has not abated. The 1.1500 level serves as the closest support, while key resistance lies at the 9-day EMA at 1.1548 and the psychological area of 1.1600. The IFO results could determine whether the pair will break above or weaken further. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.idd
