Gold Rises Sharply: A Trap or an Opportunity?
Gold prices moved sideways today around US$4,700 per ounce after rising sharply in the previous session. Fundamentally, gold is still supported by a weakening US dollar and falling US bond yields, maintaining buying interest in the precious metal. Reuters recorded spot gold at around US$4,701.19 per ounce, after previously surging around 3% on Wednesday.
Another boost came from hopes for a US-Iran peace deal. Iran is said to still be reviewing the US peace proposal, while the market sees the opportunity for a de-escalation of the conflict to reduce the risk of energy inflation. The decline in Brent prices of around 6% helped ease inflation concerns, easing pressure on gold from expectations of high interest rates.
However, gold's gains have begun to stall as the market also awaits US jobs data on Friday. This data is crucial because it could provide new clues about the direction of the Fed's policy. If the jobs data remains strong, the dollar and yields could rise again, potentially leading to a correction in gold. Conversely, if the data weakens, gold could gain additional momentum and continue to rise.
From a technical perspective, the US$4,700–US$4,710 area is a psychological resistance area currently being tested. If the price can hold and firmly break through this area, the opportunity for further upside opens up to US$4,730–US$4,750. If buying momentum strengthens, the next target could be US$4,780.
For a bearish scenario, the nearest support is located in the US$4,680–US$4,660 area. If this area is breached, gold could potentially correct further to US$4,640, then US$4,610–US$4,600. As long as the price remains above US$4,660, the short-term structure remains bullish, but is vulnerable to profit-taking.
Today's prediction is that gold will likely continue to move sideways to bullish as long as it remains above US$4,680. An upward scenario opens if gold breaks through US$4,710, while a correction scenario becomes stronger if the price falls below US$4,660. So, today's key areas: above US$4,710 for further upside, below US$4,660 for a deeper correction. (asd)*
Source: Newsmaker.id
