Beware! Brent Ready to Explode?
Brent oil prices are hovering around US$113.16 per barrel and still exhibiting strong upward pressure. Fundamentally, the oil market has not yet fully calmed down, as US-Iran tensions and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz remain the main factors supporting prices.
Fundamentally, supply risks remain very dominant. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital route for global shipping oil distribution, so any disruption to ports or energy infrastructure could immediately push oil prices up. As long as this route remains secure, the market will continue to factor a geopolitical risk premium into Brent prices.
Furthermore, attacks on energy facilities and escalating military tensions in the Middle East have raised concerns about further disruptions to oil supply. This situation makes it difficult for Brent to fall significantly, even with sentiment surrounding additional production from OPEC+ or a potential technical correction after the sharp rise.
Technically, Brent remains trending towards limited bullish conditions as long as it can remain above the US$112.50–US$113.00 area. This area provides important support for today's trading. If prices remain above that level, there's still room for upside towards US$114.50–US$115.30.
However, if Brent manages to break through US$115.30 strongly, the next upside target could be US$116.50, or even US$118.00 if headlines about conflict escalation resurface. Conversely, if prices fail to hold above US$112.50, corrective pressure could send Brent down to US$111.00, then US$110.00 for psychological support.
In my opinion, Brent is still supported more by geopolitical risks today than by additional supply-side pressure. The primary bias remains limitedly bullish, but traders need to be cautious as prices are already at high levels and vulnerable to profit-taking. As long as Hormuz remains unsecured and the US-Iran conflict persists, Brent will remain expensive. (asd)*
Source: Newsmaker.id
