Gold Recovers Slightly in Asia, US PCE Tests Next Direction
Gold prices edged higher in the Asian session on Friday (March 13), after being pressured the previous day by a strengthening dollar and rising US Treasury yields. Spot gold rose around 0.3% to US$5,095.55 per ounce, while US gold futures fell slightly to US$5,100.20, but gold is still headed for its second straight weekly decline.
This intraday recovery is being interpreted more as a short-term positioning response than a major story shift. On the one hand, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to maintain safe-haven demand, but on the other hand, surging energy prices have rekindled inflation concerns and eroded hopes for monetary policy easing, which typically underpin gold.
Today's fundamental market focus is on the release of US PCE inflation for January (delayed data), as it serves as a key reference for the Fed's interest rate path. Reuters reported that the market believes rising energy prices could complicate the scope for interest rate cuts, so gold's reaction will be highly sensitive to whether the PCE confirms "stickier" inflation pressures or is beginning to ease.
On the interest rate side, yesterday's pressure stemmed from rising yields, which increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. The 10-year US Treasury yield hovered around 4.27% on March 12, a level that keeps the dollar relatively solid and limits gold's upside should it rise again.
Technically, the US$5,090 area serves as the closest support, with the next demand zone monitored around US$5,039 (near the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart). If this zone is breached, market attention is likely to shift to US$5,000 as a psychological buffer.
Meanwhile, initial resistance is around US$5,160. A sustained break above this area opens the door to a test of US$5,200 to US$5,230, but continued upside still depends on the dollar's response and yields following the release of the PCE data.
The market will be monitoring three key variables: PCE data surprises (which alter interest rate pricing), the direction of US Treasury yields, and energy price dynamics related to the Middle East conflict. The combination of these three factors will determine whether today's recovery continues or is limited again as a technical rebound. Entering next week, the focus shifts to the FOMC meeting on March 17-18, 2026, along with the accompanying economic projections (SEP), as the language of the statement and the dot plot have the potential to lock in the "higher for longer" narrative or open up room for yield declines if further easing signals emerge. Besides the Fed, the calendar is also expected to be packed with several US data releases, such as retail sales, which could impact yields and the dollar, thus maintaining high gold volatility around the currently tested support-resistance area.
Source: Newsmaker.id
