All Assets, One Sentiment: This Is Where the Market Will Go Next!
Gold has maintained a positive bias as the US dollar weakened and demand for hedging assets increased ahead of the US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. In an environment of heightened geopolitical risk, gold tends to be the primary choice for market participants to maintain portfolio value, especially when headline volatility increases and visibility into global policy direction decreases.
On the other hand, the US dollar index has moved more cautiously. Uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy—including shifts in legal frameworks and potential further tariff adjustments—has hindered the dollar's strengthening. Although the dollar remains defensive as markets enter a risk-off phase, room for appreciation could be constrained when sentiment shifts toward trade policy, which puts additional pressure on growth prospects and supply chain stability.
Oil prices are currently caught in a tug-of-war between geopolitical risk premiums and fundamental supply signals. On the one hand, the market maintains a risk premium as developments in the US-Iran negotiations have the potential to influence risk perceptions in the Middle East region. However, on the other hand, inventory indicators and global supply dynamics tend to restrain rallies from developing too aggressively, making oil movements highly sensitive to headline changes.
Thus, oil is traded more as a commodity that reacts to event risk, rather than solely following macroeconomic data. Any indication of geopolitical escalation can trigger a rapid price surge, but such a rally is potentially limited if it is not followed by a significant supply disruption or if inventory data confirms adequate supply availability.
Silver moves more moderately than gold, but remains supported by a similar narrative. As a precious metal with industrial characteristics, silver often exhibits higher volatility and a less linear response. During strong risk-off periods, silver tends to follow safe-haven trends, but its sensitivity to growth expectations and industrial demand makes its movements more volatile.
From a fundamental perspective, three factors currently determine market direction: first, the nuances of the outcome of the US-Iran negotiations in Geneva; second, the clarity and duration of US tariff policy; and third, the release of US employment data (particularly jobless claims), which plays a significant role in shaping market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. The combination of these three will determine whether the market enters a deeper defensive mode or rebalances to a risk-on position.
Overall, as long as geopolitical and tariff uncertainty persists, gold is likely to maintain its superior position as a hedge. Oil is likely to move flat with the risk of a headline-based spike, while the US dollar is likely to be stable but vulnerable to trade policy uncertainty. Silver has the potential to follow gold's lead, but with higher volatility due to the "high beta" nature of the precious metal group. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
