Ahead of the FOMC: How Long Will Oil Be Bullish?
Oil prices continue to rise due to Russian supply risks (Primorsk, Ust-Luga, Kirishi) and a weakening dollar ahead of the Fed's potential 25 bps cut. Key points: Brent $67.20 / WTI $62.94; drone attacks potentially reducing Russian exports to India and China; weak Chinese data (factories/retail) but refinery throughput and apparent demand are rising; sentiment is also influenced by trade tariff news (G7/US) and concerns about US fuel demand. In essence, there is a supply risk premium lifting prices, while the mixed demand side is holding back any further rally.
Future Outlook: The short-term bias is likely to be moderately upward as long as the Russian disruption has not fully resolved and the USD remains soft post-Fed. A dovish Fed (-25 bps + further signals) will support oil; a cautious message could stall the rally. A rapid recovery of Primorsk/Ust-Luga operations ⇒ shrinking risk premium (prices could correct); Escalation of attacks ⇒ Increased risk premium (pushing prices higher). Things to monitor: Confirmation of Russia's export status, FOMC results and Powell's tone, US-China talks, and the release of US fuel demand data. These four factors are likely to direct the next movement. (ayu)
The oil price at the time of writing was $67.12
- Buy if the price moves within the $67.22 range
- Sell if the price moves within the $67.02 range
Resistance 2: $67.32
Resistance 1: $67.22
Support 1: $66.88
Support 2: $66.78
DISCLAIMER
Note: This article is analytical in nature and is not a definitive reference. Consider fundamental and technical developments in trading before making any investment decisions.
Source: Newsmaker.id
