DXY Stable, Looking for a New Move?
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains perched in the 97-level area ahead of today's European session, with USD sentiment tending to "hold its breath" as the market is mixed between risk-off (safe haven) sentiment and concerns about the changing direction of US trade policy.
The main trigger remains tariffs: following the Supreme Court ruling limiting some major tariff schemes, the White House switched to using Section 122 (import surcharges) effective for 150 days starting February 24, 2026—and the market is still pricing in the potential for the rate to be shifted to 15%. The uncertainty of "10% vs. 15% and for how long" is making it difficult for the USD to find a clear direction.
On the geopolitical front, market sentiment is also being tempered by the third round of US-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva today. If headlines point to rising tensions, the USD could receive a safe-haven boost; but if the risk-off shifts more toward gold/commodities, the DXY could remain below.
The data agenda that could "jolt" the DXY ahead of/during the European session is the US weekly jobless claims. Weaker-than-expected employment data usually weakens the USD as the market becomes more confident about the possibility of policy easing; conversely, a stronger figure could lift the DXY out of the 97-ish area.
Finally, comments from Fed officials continue to act as both a brake and a gas: several officials emphasized that inflation remains a major challenge (a cautious tone), but the market continues to consider the scope for future interest rate cuts—as a result, the USD often moves "small" while awaiting data confirmation. (alg)
Source: Newsmaker.id
