Euro Gains After German Fiscal Deal; Dollar Underpinned by Government Shutdown Likely Averted
The euro gained broadly on Friday after German parties agreed on a fiscal deal that could boost defence spending and revive growth in Europe’s largest economy.
The dollar weakened against the euro but rose against the Swiss franc and the yen, underpinned by the likelihood the U.S. government will avert a shutdown over the weekend, extending gains as data showed inflation expectations picked up, suggesting the Federal Reserve will likely be patient cutting interest rates.
German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz announced he had secured the crucial backing of the Greens for a massive increase in state borrowing.
The deal will likely be approved by the outgoing parliament next week and it includes a 500 billion euro ($544.30 billion)fund for infrastructure and sweeping changes to borrowing rules.
Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX Strategy at Nomura, said he sees upside for the euro especially against the Swiss franc and against the British pound on prospects of German fiscal spending.
“We expect the German fiscal reform to pass next week and the ECB holding rates steady in April, a more hawkish outcome than is currently priced in,” Bunning said. “The USD leg may remain somewhat volatile as U.S. exceptionalism fears wane but tariffs pose some USD upside risks.”
The euro rose 0.3% to $1.082. Against the pound, the euro gained 0.3% to 84.08 pence and rose 0.5% to 0.96255 against the Swiss franc. It is on track for a second straight week of gains against the dollar, pound, and the franc.
The University of Michigan survey on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment plunged in March but inflation expectations soared amid worries about the impact of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations jumped to 4.9%, from 4.3% in February.
Top U.S. Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer announced on Thursday that he would vote to advance a Republican stopgap funding bill, signalling that his party would provide the votes to avert a government shutdown.
The dollar strengthened 0.4% to 0.885 Swiss franc and up 0.7% for the week. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.6% to 148.63 and was up this week.
Japanese companies agreed to raise wages by 5.46% this year, topping both last year’s preliminary and final figures and likely marking the highest pay hike in 34 years.
The data is one important input into the Bank of Japan’s decision making. Economists and markets see the central bank standing pat at its meeting next week as policymakers gauge global risks.
The pound weakened after the British economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in January. The pound, however, was not far off its four-month peak of $1.2990 hit on Wednesday. Sterling weakened 0.1% to $1.2928 but was hovered near flat for the week.
On the back of the stronger euro, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.1% to 103.72. It is on track for the second straight week of losses.
Source : Reuters
