Trade War & US Shutdown Lift Silver Again
Silver rallied again above $53.5/oz in the US session on Thursday, after setting a new high of $53.82/oz. The bias remains positive following this month's strong rally, while a weaker dollar maintained buying interest in the precious metal. Intraday market focus shifted to policy and geopolitical headlines that drive safe-haven flows.
The primary driver remains expectations for a Fed rate cut at the October 28-29 FOMC Meeting. Fed member Christopher Waller publicly supported a 25 bps rate cut, strengthening the pricing of easing later in the month. The market probability of a quarter-point cut is high based on FedWatch monitoring in early October, maintaining a tailwind for non-yielding assets like silver.
On the risk side, the US-China trade war is escalating again with tit-for-tat port charges, adding to supply chain uncertainty and supporting hedging demand. The US government shutdown, which is entering its third week, is also strengthening safe-haven bids. On the physical side, strong Indian festival demand—retail silver prices in Chennai surpassed 2 lakh/kg—provided additional support. Looking ahead, the key catalysts will be the FOMC decision and trade developments; the silver rally has the potential to continue as long as the risk outlook remains high.
Source: Newsmaker.id
