Oil Falls, Surplus Looms
Oil prices weakened on Wednesday (October 15th), continuing the previous session's decline. At 04:25 GMT, Brent fell 0.3% to $62.18/barrel, while WTI fell 0.3% to $58.54/barrel. Both contracts previously closed at five-month lows, indicating continued selling pressure.
The main cause is the supply side. The IEA warned that the market could face a surplus of up to 4 million bpd by 2026, larger than previously projected, as OPEC+ and other producers increase output amid sluggish demand. LSEG analyst Emril Jamil said the market focus is now on oversupply with mixed demand signals.
At the same time, US-China trade tensions are escalating again. Both countries have imposed additional port fees on ships carrying cargo between them, raising trade costs and disrupting shipping flows. Tensions escalated after China expanded controls on rare earth exports, while US President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs and tightened restrictions on software exports starting November 1, which risks depressing global growth.
For a picture of US demand, market participants are awaiting weekly inventory data. A preliminary Reuters poll estimates US crude oil stocks rose by 200,000 barrels in the week to October 10, while gasoline and distillate stocks likely fell. The API report is scheduled for Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. GMT, while the EIA data is scheduled for Thursday at 2:30 p.m. GMT—both delayed by one day due to the Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples Day holiday. Haitong Futures analyst Yang An emphasized that changes in global inventories will be key to the next price direction. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
